Good morning, traders…
This isn’t a normal week in the options market.
It’s triple witching on Friday, when three different kinds of contracts expire at the same time: stock options, index options, and index futures.
This only happens four times a year.
If you aren’t ready for it, your open positions might react in a way you’re not expecting.
But if you’re watching closely, you’ll notice it in the tape. Volume picks up, volatility gets weirder, and the price action turns more erratic than usual.
Trends can flip on a dime. That breakout you’ve been waiting on? It might stall out and reverse. That support level that held three days in a row? It could be gone in five minutes.
You can’t trade last week’s strategy during Triple Witching. You need to know what changes, where the traps are, and how to work around them.
Let Me Show You How I’m Reading The Internals, 6 Charts I’m Watching, And The Exact Adjustments I’m Making To Stay Green Through Triple Witching Week…
Adapting to Triple Witching Week
I’m expecting choppy, unpredictable price action this week. Your approach should focus on protecting profits, managing risk, and trading around the scheduled catalysts.
Here’s how I’m adjusting:
1. Play the ranges.
Price likely won’t trend clean. I’m identifying key support and resistance zones and sticking to them. No chasing breakouts unless they confirm. I want levels to guide my trades.
2. Take the money and run.
When a trade pays, I’m taking it. No waiting around for a home run. If I’m green, I’m locking it in and resetting.
3. Be selective.
If the setups aren’t perfect, sit it out.
4. Plan and pay.
I’m keeping a plan for every setup: entry, exit, and risk. No guesswork. That’s how you stay sharp in a week like this.
What the Internals Say
- VIX is holding under 18, and the Bollinger Bands are curling down, which suggests relative calm (at least for now).
- Put/call ratio is above 0.6, which is in the normal range. If it drops too low, that’s when we start looking for a reversal.
- Buying pressure (tracking the 100 line) stayed above zero late last week. As long as it holds, the longer-term uptrend stays intact.
- SPY is sitting just below resistance around 6222. If that level breaks, there’s room to push toward 6235. Until then, we’re in a chop zone.
The Consumer Price Index
To add to this week’s volatility, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release today at 8:30 a.m. EST.
- Economists expect headline CPI to rise around 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.1% year‑over‑year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) around 0.3% monthly, ~3.3% annually.
- The report might help us see if recent tariffs are boosting inflation. Analysts are keen to identify any tariff-induced effects (although we’ll probably have to wait until July or August to see the post-90-day-pause impact).
- This release could shift Federal Reserve expectations. A hotter number could delay the expectations of rate cuts, while cooler data will give the Fed more room to ease.
CPI Trading Tips
- Avoid taking positions right before data on rate-sensitive plays in the first 30 minutes of trading. Let the trend show you the direction before entering new setups.
- Set automated price alerts for any names that may react to CPI surprises.
- Watch implied volatility after the print. Expect at-the-money option premiums to drop after the release. You can find some very attractive price discrepancies after the uncertainty has passed.
6 Setups I’m Watching This Week
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
July 18, $185 Calls: This setup is forming a clear breakout pattern under $185. If price breaks above $185, I’ll be ready to enter.
- Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL)
July 18, $75 Calls: I’m watching for a move above $73.20. That would clear resistance and open the door for a gap fill.
- UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH)
July 18, $307.50 Calls: A break above $304 would trigger a long alert for me. Big call flow supports the move.
- Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE)
July 25, $75 Calls: I want to see price reclaim $73. That would mark a trendline break and suggest momentum to the upside.
- Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD)
July 19, $105 Calls (also looking at longer-dated $115s and August $120s): If HOOD breaks above $101.15, I’ll consider both short and long plays depending on the momentum.
- MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR)
July 18, $457.50 Calls: If MSTR breaks through $450, I’ll look for a quick push toward $465. Crypto strength is the major theme here.
These setups stand out with stacked expirations, CPI hitting Tuesday, and a market that’s leaning toward chop.
If you’re green, pay yourself. If a setup stalls, get out. And if you don’t see setups that check all of your boxes, don’t force it.
Happy trading,
Ben Sturgill
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*Past performance does not indicate future results
