My #1 Watch Today (New AI Earnings Data)

There’s one stock on my watchlist today…

It’s a prominent business in the AI race. And it just announced earnings.

It’s the hottest sector in the market with one of the most volatile catalysts…

Don’t worry about scanning thousands of stocks and whittling down your watchlist to a handful of tickers.

There’s only one name you need to keep an eye on today. Too many traders get distracted by less-than-ideal setups…

For example, maybe there’s only one A+ stock in the market, but while you’re waiting for the chart to match our pattern, you get bored and hunt for other trades, B+, C+, and even D-grade setups.

Don’t let yourself look for other trades.

Tech Earnings

Here’s the reality behind tech earnings… Beating estimates isn’t enough anymore.

AI companies have silenced Wall Street’s expectations over and over again.

A company could beat on revenue, EPS, and guidance… Even then, the stock might not move.

When stocks continually exceed expectations, a lot of the good news gets priced in. Traders buy the expectation months before. By the time the report hits, the question isn’t “Was the data good?” It’s “Was it better than everyone already assumed?”

Micron is the perfect example.

The memory maker just posted record fiscal Q4 results, and the numbers were staggering.

Revenue hit $54.23 billion, nearly 5x the $11.31 billion from a year ago and ahead of the $51.49 billion analysts expected.
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $33.42 versus estimates of $31.83.
Next-quarter guidance of $60 billion to $63 billion sailed past the $56.77 billion consensus.

What did the stock do in response? Not much.

Since the report, MU has chopped sideways between roughly $1,050 and $1,100, closing near $1,065 yesterday.

That’s what “priced-in” looks like.

Applied Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: APLD) Earnings

Before the earnings dropped on October 7 during after-hours trading, the market was already positioned for a huge move…

Here’s the alert I sent traders that afternoon:

The options orders showed a huge discrepancy between calls and puts.

The market isn’t always right. But we’d rather trade alongside an overwhelming majority unless we know something the rest of the market doesn’t…

Then the earnings dropped:

Revenue hit $341.9 million, up 322% from a year ago and well above the roughly $134 million consensus estimate.
The bottom line is messier. On a GAAP basis, APLD lost $221.0 million, or $0.76 per share, versus analyst expectations of a $0.29 loss.
The company signed a 210 MW, 15-year lease at Delta Forge 2 with its investment-grade hyperscaler customer, worth about $5.2 billion in base-term revenue.

On paper, APLD posted worse numbers than MU.

But the charts are completely different. One could argue that MU had already priced in its earnings data: the stock was already up +100% in 6 months.

But APLD was in the red before the earnings dropped…

Is it possible for APLD to spike because its chart didn’t price in a bullish earnings report? Yes, it’s possible…

The price action today will tell us everything we need to know. Pay attention to key intraday levels and let the earnings do the work.