Happy Friday the 13th, traders…
The Dow Jones hit 50,000 this week for the first time ever.
Pop the champagne. Run the CNBC graphics. Write your eulogies for the bears.
On second thought, don’t…
The SPY and QQQ have been tanking.
Same week, same news. Completely different outcomes.
If you were long tech calls, you probably had a bad time…
If you were long industrial or oil calls, different story entirely.
I’m about to show you:
- Why the “good news is bad news” dynamic is back (and why your tech calls got destroyed because of it)
- The AI panic that hit white-collar sectors (spoiler: the robots are coming for you)
- Why the Magnificent 7 are getting left behind while energy and materials rip
- What today’s CPI report could do to this rotation (hint: nothing good for tech bagholders)
- How to actually trade this market instead of catching falling knives because “it’s gotta bounce eventually, right?”
My Friday Breakdown…
Good News Is Bad News (Again)
Friday’s jobs report came in stronger than expected. 130,000 jobs added. Unemployment at 4.3%.
Sounds great, right?
Well, the market sold off right after the data dropped.
Why? Because strong jobs data means the Fed has zero reason to cut rates anytime soon.
And when rate cut odds disappear, Treasury yields spike while growth stocks (see: tech) get crushed.
This is the “good news is bad news” dynamic. The stronger the economy looks, the longer the Fed keeps rates high … and the worse the expensive, future-earnings-dependent stocks perform.
You might recall that tech was supposed to be unstoppable in 2026. AI revolution. Infinite growth. To the moon and all that.
Yeah, well…
The Smart Money doesn’t care about your NVDA calls.
The Robots Are Coming For Your Job (And The Market Knows It)
The other story this week: AI panic hitting financial and software stocks.
Not the “AI is amazing and everyone’s buying NVDA” kind of AI story. The “AI is going to replace every lawyer, accountant, software developer, and financial analyst” kind of AI story.
Legal research tools that can draft documents. Financial analysis software that can read and interpret earnings reports in seconds. Document automation that makes entire departments obsolete.
This isn’t theoretical anymore. These tools exist.
Now, the market has started pricing in what that means for the companies currently offering these (arguably replaceable) services.
Software companies got hit. Brokerage firms got hit. Wealth management firms got hit. Even some banks took losses.
AI is still a long-term bullish theme. But when traders realize AI is going to destroy the revenue models of companies they own RIGHT NOW, they sell first (and figure out the long-term thesis later).
Can we get a wellness check on anyone who bought software stocks this month?
Your Boomer Dad’s Portfolio Is Demolishing Yours
Here’s the divergence that actually matters:
- Dow: Up big. Record highs. Repeatedly closing above 50,000.
- S&P 500: Basically flat. Choppy. No direction.
- Nasdaq: Down 1.6% yesterday. Selling pressure all week.
This is a clear rotation out of mega-cap tech and into value stocks.
Energy stocks were up. Materials stocks were up. Industrials were up. All the sectors that benefit from a strong economy (and don’t need rate cuts to justify their valuations).
Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 tech stocks that carried the market for two years? Getting mostly left behind … for now.
If you’re still trading like it’s 2023 and buying 0DTEs on every tech dip, you’re fighting the current trend.
Trade the market we have, not the market you want.
How I’m Actually Trading This
Today, we get the CPI inflation report.
That’s the real test. If inflation comes in hot, rate-cut expectations get pushed out even further, and this rotation probably accelerates.
If inflation cools, tech probably gets a juicy relief rally.
But right now, the narrative is clear:
The labor market is strong. Inflation is uncertain. Rate cuts are delayed.
This month’s forecast calls for volatility, chop, and false breakouts.
Fun times.
Energy. Materials. Industrials. The stuff that’s actually working.
If tech wants to bounce, great. I’ll wait for confirmation, volume, and a clean setup. But I’m not catching falling knives just because “AMZN is down 10%, so it must be a buy.”
Trade what’s working, ignore what isn’t.
That’s how I’ve been targeting gains like these…
+52% on AAPL (1 day)*
+100% on TSLA (same day)*
+215% on CMCSA (2 weeks)*
+100% on AAPL (1 day)*
+100% on META (same day)*
+200% on HOOD (2 days)*
+294% on GOOGL (4 days)*
…on some of the most volatile days in recent memory.
But let’s be honest…
Reading about my system and actually implementing it yourself are two completely different things.
That’s why I’m hosting the Simpler Options 2-Day Virtual Bootcamp, February 17th-18th, from 12:30 PM to 5:30 PM EST.
Day 1 (Tuesday, February 17th): My team and I will show you step-by-step how we take high-probability options trades that have been winning over 80% of the time, even in the most volatile markets.* You’ll see the exact process we use to identify these setups.
Day 2 (Wednesday, February 18th): We’ll help you determine the specific types of options setups that fit your own unique lifestyle and personal goals with trading.
If you want to learn how I adjust my strategy based on market conditions to find triple-digit wins* in choppy markets…
Click here to reserve your spot.
Happy trading,
Ben Sturgill
*Past performance does not indicate future results
