Is The Choppy Market Finished?

Good morning, traders…

For two straight weeks, I’ve been hammering the same message: tighten up your trade selection, shrink your position sizes, and protect your capital.

That was the right call as the VIX was rising and price action was choppy.

But over the weekend, one piece of news changed everything.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. and China have agreed on a “framework” for a trade deal.

This is extremely positive news for stocks, and the market seems to agree.

The S&P 500 gapped up 1% yesterday, while the VIX dropped below 16, signaling another major shift in market structure.

Now we’re heading into the biggest test of the year: earnings season.

More than 20% of the S&P 500 reports this week.

If earnings come in strong, trade talks stay positive, and the Fed cuts rates on Wednesday (which 96.7% of expectations suggest)…

This Could Be One Of The Most Bullish Weeks Of The Year…

The Most Important Chart in the Market

This week, one chart is more important than any other — The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

The VIX dropped below 16 yesterday, which signals a major shift in market structure:

We had been watching a “pop-drop-go” pattern, but that broke when the VIX fell below 17.59 and started compressing.

Volatility is falling, which suggests risk-on conditions are returning.

What does this mean for your trading? You play the market you have, not the one you think you have.

The defensive posture I’ve been suggesting for the past few weeks may be too conservative now.

You can start sizing up positions, holding trades longer, and taking setups with more conviction.

The Choppy Conditions Might Be Behind Us

The market can’t move higher without liquidity.

And right now, global liquidity is rising across 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year M2 supply metrics.

The People’s Bank of China is pumping money into the system, even as the U.S. deals with some fiscal pauses.

Then, the Fed meets on Wednesday at 2 p.m., with a 96.7% expectation that rates will remain unchanged.

But what really matters is Jerome Powell’s commentary.

If he hints at the Fed cutting rates by 75 basis points over the next six months — small caps, growth stocks, and crypto could see explosive moves.

Add to that the biggest earnings week of the year, and you’ve got a recipe for some juicy trading opportunities:

If Powell’s tone stays dovish, liquidity remains high, and earnings don’t disappoint, bullish setups could appear all over the market.

This is the environment I’ve been waiting for.

3 Trade Setups to Watch

Speaking of bullish setups, these three charts are at the top of my watchlist this week…

UiPath Inc. (NYSE: PATH)

There’s been a ridiculous amount of January call buying on PATH. Set an alert at $17.20 for the January 17 $20 Calls. Smart Money is positioning for a move higher into year-end.

Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASDAQ: CAKE)

A massive $1 million Smart Money bet came in on CAKE … right before earnings. Coincidence? Likely not. This is a classic “three times a lady” setup. Watch for a breakout above $57.50 for the November 21 $60 Calls.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)

Long-term bullish setup. I’ve been in AMZN since the $200-$211 range, and it’s setting up for a Stage 2 breakout. If AMZN breaks above $229, it confirms the next leg higher. I’m watching the January 16 $265 Calls and already holding May $260 Calls.

Your Game Plan For This Week

The market is giving you clearer signals than it has in weeks.

The VIX is down. Liquidity is up. The Fed is playing ball. And the strongest companies in the market are set to report earnings over the next four days.

This is when you transition from defense to offense — but with discipline.

Don’t abandon your stops. Don’t oversize positions just because conditions are favorable. And don’t force trades that haven’t triggered yet.

Set your alerts. Watch for breakouts. And when the setups trigger, be ready to strike.

Remember: patient traders take money from impatient traders.

You’ve been patient.

Now it’s time to take your gains.

Which is why I’m hosting my Simpler Options 2-Day Virtual Bootcamp.

If you’ve been wanting to understand how options really work, TODAY IS THE DAY…