Good morning, traders…

You’re at the final table of a poker tournament. Seven players left.

For the last 3 hours, the game has had a predictable rhythm. 

You’re reading the table like a book, building your stack into a Taj Mahal.

Then the dealer announces, “Next hand, all blinds double. Antes triple. And all decisions must be made within 30 seconds.”

Suddenly, nobody’s playing their normal game. The aggressive player turns cautious, the tight player moves all in. Chips fly across the table in directions that make no sense.

The rules didn’t change. The cards didn’t change. The players didn’t change. 

But the pressure changed everything.

That’s this week in the options market.

And if you’re not aware of why, you’re trading with blinders on.

I’m talking about something baked into the options calendar, a scheduled phenomenon that sneaks up quietly (but can throw off your trades if you’re not ready for it)…

• It messes with liquidity.
• It pulls market makers into weird buying and selling patterns.
• It creates fast, violent moves at the end of the week.

And it only happens four times per year. 

But it’s not just about a few weird quirks. This phenomenon has a clear historical trend…

7 of the last 10 times it happened, the market closed in the same direction.

This catches ill-informed traders off guard.

But I want to make sure you aren’t one of them.

Here’s Why This Week Is Unique (And How To Approach It)…

What Quad Witching Means

“Quad Witching” happens when stock options, index options, index futures, and single stock futures all expire on the same day … this Friday.

Dailies, weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies … all of them. 

That might sound like a technical detail, but it has major implications.

Ahead of expiration, open interest swells as traders pile into contracts (many of which will need to be closed, rolled, or exercised).

This Friday, volume will surge, especially in the last hour. You’ll see unusual spikes right before the open (and again as the market closes).

• Market makers will scramble to manage risk.
• Algorithms will kick in to match orders and hedge exposure. 
• Price moves can get sharp and erratic. 
• Liquidity might vanish in one spot and flood into another.

And if you’re not paying attention, it’s easy to get chopped up in the crossfire…

The 3 Common Effects of Quad Witching

Volume Spikes (and Unpredictable Fills)

Anyone who doesn’t know about quad witching will likely be caught staring slack-jawed at shocking price swings.

The flood of orders can absorb normal levels of liquidity. That means slippage, choppy fills, or partial executions can throw you off guard during key moments.

If you’re not sizing and timing cautiously, you’re playing with fire.

Implied Volatility Gets Weird

When traders rush to close or roll expiring positions, implied volatility (IV) can spike or collapse in narrow windows.

That can distort prices for basic calls and puts. 

Contracts that look cheap can suddenly explode in value (which can lead to some juicy trading opportunities), but…

Higher premiums on the day (which still won’t look that high) can erode in minutes.

Friday Feels Different

If you’re holding calls or puts that need a big move, you need that move to happen fast (or time decay will eat your premium).

Friday is a whole different ballgame. If you’re holding short-term in the wrong direction by Thursday, you’re in trouble.

Watch your exposure as we head into Friday.

How to Approach Quad Witching

I’ve tracked the SPY’s performance over the last 10 Quad Witching days:

• 09/19/2025 — Red
• 06/20/2025 — Green
• 03/21/2025 — Red
• 12/20/2024 — Red
• 09/20/2024 — Green
• 06/21/2024 — Red
• 03/15/2024 — Red
• 12/15/2023 — Red
• 09/15/2023 — Green
• 06/16/2023 — Red

7 out of 10 closes were red. 

That’s telling you to be extra selective with long positions this week. 

But if you see a perfect setup and have to take it, do the following:

1. Expect Chop

Don’t assume your charts will hold to smooth, clear trends. This week is known for choppy moves.

Stacked expirations bring extra volatility due to rapid repositioning into the end of the week.

Be selective. If it’s not getting big Smart Money bets, don’t trade it.

2. Play the Ranges

We’re likely to see range-bound price action as market makers try to keep contracts from paying out.

Play those ranges.

On the SPY:

$688 is major resistance. The market needs to break and hold above this level to unlock upside momentum.

$675 is “The Alamo.” This is the level that must be defended. Below $675, go full defensive posture.

Those are the levels. Trade between them. 

Don’t chase breakouts (or breakdowns) unless they confirm and hold.

Let the key price levels do the hard work for you.

3. Take Profits Early

Don’t hold runners this week. If your trade goes green, lock in gains quickly.

Take the singles. Don’t wait around for home runs.

I’m scaling out at +10%, +20%, and +30%. 

The Data Collision

To add to the volatility, we’ve got heavy economic data dropping this week.

Non-farm payrolls. Retail sales. Unemployment rate.

The government shutdown created gaps in recent data, so these reports carry extra weight.

You need to be on your toes as options expiration pressure collides with market-moving economic data.

This is a rare week.

But if you know what’s going on and respect the risk, some great trading opportunities can arise from the disruption.

Prepare beforehand, execute your plan, and take profits quickly when the setups work.

Happy trading,

Ben Sturgill

*Past performance does not indicate future results