Good morning, traders…
I honestly can’t remember the last time fear in the market felt this thick. You can sense it in the air — on the news, in the charts, even just talking with folks in the community.
I can tell a lot of my students are feeling it too. Some of you are worried, some are confused, and a few are downright scared.
I get it. It’s been a shaky stretch, and when things start pulling back hard, it stirs up all kinds of questions about what’s coming next.
As of Monday morning, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are officially in bear market territory — down more than 20% from their highs:
That kind of stat grabs headlines. It rattles people. But I want to show you why I think the fear is being overblown. Yes, the volatility is intense. But it’s not the end of the world.
We’re not long-term index investors. We’re not trying to guess where the S&P will be six months from now.
We’re options traders.
That means we focus on what’s in front of us: identifying trends and capitalizing on short-term moves.
Let’s go over what I see happening beneath the surface, why I’m not panicking, and how we can approach this market with clarity, not chaos…
What the VIX is Telling Us
I recently looked at a 20-year monthly chart of the VIX and zoomed in on four major spikes:
- The 2008 global financial crisis: A full-blown economic reset.
- The COVID pandemic: A global health crisis that brought the world to a standstill.
- The 2018 “Volmageddon” event: A short-lived spike caused by institutions unwinding volatility trades.
- Now, we’re in number four: The 2025 uncertainty around trade and tariffs.
The commonality between these moves is uncertainty. Not systemic failure. Not collapse. Not contagion.
If you’re hearing chatter about major shifts in global manufacturing or deep-rooted economic transformation, I just don’t see it.
Structural change takes years — and that’s not the timeline here. Politically speaking, any administration only has so much time to push through major reform.
What we’re seeing now feels more like a leverage play to negotiate better trade deals and tariffs. That means pressure in the short term, sure. But not a disaster in the long term.
And that brings me to where we are now…
The VIX is stretched. Tax season’s around the corner. Some folks are selling to cover IRS bills. Sprinkle in some international trade tension, and you’ve got a recipe for massive volatility — but again, not a collapse.
I don’t believe we’re staring down the barrel of a multi-year drawdown like we saw in 2008. This is more like a few months of discomfort while negotiations get sorted out and market confidence recalibrates.
In other words, I’m not freaking out. And you don’t need to either.
In this kind of environment, we stay nimble. We keep our positions light. We trade the market we’ve got, not the one we wish we had.
And yes, that might mean a few more day trades than usual. But again, I’d rather adapt and keep capital moving than be stubborn and get stuck.
6 Setups I’m Watching This Week
Here’s are some trades I’m currently in (and a few OMEN Scanner bets I’m watching for potential entries):
1. SPXS (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares)
I’m still in this trade with a target around $10.25. If it hits that, I’ll be trimming. Not because I’m scared, but because the chart tells me to.
2. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Tesla is down to $224 and I’ve said it before — I’ll keep buying this all the way down to $150. In my opinion, that’s a 4-5 bagger over time. Might take a few bumps along the way, but I like the odds.
3. Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB)
We saw nearly $200,000 flow into the April 17 $52 puts. I’m watching the $53 level as key support. If it breaks, those puts could move fast. Set that alert under $53.
4. ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK)
Big volume on the April 17 $45 calls. Right now, ARKK is sitting around $39. I’m setting my alert above $41, and then again above $42.60. A move back through those levels could trigger a bounce setup.
5. On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON)
This one’s pulling back hard, but I’m watching it for a recovery above $41. Again, another bounce setup on the radar. I’m watching April 17 $42 calls.
6. Rocket Companies Inc. (NYSE: RKT)
We talked about this one last week and saw it break out beautifully. Now there’s big flow into the September $19 calls. That tells me someone sees long-term upside, likely tied to interest rates. If we get a rate cut — or even the expectation of one — RKT stands to benefit big.
With the FedWatch tool showing a growing chance of rate cuts starting in May or June, I wouldn’t be surprised to see names like Rocket continue to strengthen. More rate cuts, more mortgage demand, more upside potential.
No Panic
We’re in a high-VIX environment right now. That means whipsaws, unexpected drops, and the occasional head fake.
But it also means opportunity — if you stay nimble and know your levels.
That’s why I’m keeping my trades on a short leash. If I need to flip something quick, I can. No panic.
That said, if you’re feeling a little overwhelmed, don’t lean into confusion. These kinds of corrections can shake even the most seasoned traders. There’s nothing wrong with sitting on the sidelines.
I think we’re in for a few months of chop, followed by a reversal to the upside. I see rate cuts ahead, increased liquidity, and a possible cycle shift.
Not doom. Not systemic risk. Just the natural rhythm of an uncertain moment that’s more about political strategy than long-term economic fragility.
Happy trading,
Ben Sturgill
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*Past performance does not indicate future results
