Good morning, traders…
My oldest son, Jackson, is 15 years old today.
Am I that old? This kid is gonna be driving me around soon…
Happy Birthday, Jackson!
Time flies, folks.
And speaking of time flying…
We’re only six days into 2026, and the market is already shifting.
The U.S. just captured Maduro and took over Venezuela.
Policy-driven volatility is replacing tech-fueled melt-ups.
Bitcoin, gold, silver, and oil are all surging.
The VIX is starting to creep higher.
Bottom Line: The 2026 market environment looks more defensive, more risk-off, and more volatile than 2025.
You need a philosophy that works against that backdrop. A philosophy that keeps you nimble, flexible, and open-minded. A philosophy that prioritizes risk management while giving you room to crush opportunities when they jump off the screen.
I’ve built mine.
Let’s build yours…
Here’s My New Trading Philosophy For 2026…
My Overall Market View For 2026
2026 market volatility will be policy-driven, not cyclical.
This has been my thesis for months, and current events keep confirming it.
The U.S. intervention in Venezuela over the weekend is a perfect example.
You need to be prepared for sudden catalysts rather than predictable economic cycles.
The S&P 500’s Technical Setup
The S&P 500 has been forming a large, multi-month wedge pattern since October.
We’re nearing a major inflection point. Either a bullish breakout or a sharp downside move is coming…
Here are the levels that matter:
$685 is the current decision zone. This is what I call “the point of control.” We’re sitting right on it.
$689 is a major resistance level. The market needs to break and hold above this level to unlock upside momentum. Without a clean break above $689, we’re stuck in chop.
$670 is “The Alamo,” the level that must be defended.
Below $670, it’s time for defensive posture. All cash and puts as hedges. No questions.
Stay alert. Stay flexible. The market will tell you which way it’s going.
The Market Internals and Risk Signals
I’m watching moving average crosses as early signals of directional change.
But the insane upside move in precious metals and cryptocurrencies can’t be ignored.
Risk-off signals are beginning to appear. Not screaming yet, but showing up.
The key point: After three straight years of insane major-index gains, 2026 is shaping up to be considerably more volatile.
My Core Trading Philosophy For 2026
This year, I’m focusing on pullback buys rather than aggressive breakouts.
Breakouts look great on paper. Stock clears resistance, volume confirms, momentum kicks in.
But in policy-driven volatility, breakouts are far more likely to fail.
Pullback buys offer better risk management. You’re entering after the initial move, at a defined support level, with a clear invalidation point.
- Stay long while the chart structure holds.
- Exit immediately when a key support level fails.
Pretty straightforward, right?
I’m not eliminating breakouts completely, but they’ll be very selective.
I’ll only trade the highest-conviction breakout setups with clear catalysts and undeniable Smart Money confirmation.
The rest of the time, I’m waiting for pullbacks to support levels and entering with defined risk.
What This Means For You
You don’t have to trade the way I trade. But you do need a philosophy that matches the market environment.
2026 is shaping up to be more uncertain than 2025.
Policy-driven chaos creates opportunity, but it also lays traps.
How I plan to win:
- Following the Smart Money.
- Pullback buys.
- Defined risk.
- Early profit-taking.
- Quick exits.
Happy trading,
Ben Sturgill
*Past performance does not indicate future results