Good morning, traders…

The numbers are in. 

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported earnings on Wednesday afternoon.

EPS: $1.62 vs. $1.53 estimated. Beat.

Revenue: $68.13 billion vs. $66.21 billion estimated. Beat.

Guidance for next quarter: $78 billion. Beat.

A triple-beat, yes. But not a massive triple-beat.

The stock shot up briefly in after-hours, faded overnight, and got crushed on Thursday (closing down 5.4% on the day).

Welcome to the new era of NVIDIA earnings: slight beats, the market punishing anything less than perfection, and options getting crushed. 

But there’s another catalyst coming…

One that historically moves the stock way more than earnings do…

And no one’s talking about it yet…

P.S. There’s a reason certain stocks melt up on Monday mornings with “no clear catalyst.” 

Jack Kellogg spent years and $1.5 million building a proprietary system to score this exact phenomenon before it happens…

Click here to join us when we go live (and see why this Monday is one of the most explosive setups of the year).

The Numbers Were Good (What A Shocker)

Let’s be clear: NVIDIA’s business is absolutely printing money.

Revenue up 73% year-over-year. Data center revenue hit $62.3 billion (up 75%). Net income almost doubled to $43 billion.

The company now gets 91% (!!) of its revenue from data centers. Hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft accounted for just over 50% of data center revenue. They’re spending money like it’s going out of style.

Combined hyperscaler capex could approach $700 billion this year. NVIDIA’s getting a huge chunk of that.

This is an incredible business. Nobody’s disputing that.

But there’s a problem…

Everyone (and their grandma) already knew all of this…

The Analysts Are Getting Really Good At This

Remember when NVIDIA used to blow the doors off earnings estimates?

When the stock would gap up 20% the next day because the numbers were so ridiculous nobody saw them coming?

Those days are over.

Analysts expected $1.53 EPS. NVIDIA delivered $1.62. That’s a 6% beat.

Analysts expected $66.21 billion in revenue. NVIDIA delivered $68.13 billion. That’s a 3% beat.

These aren’t blowout numbers. And that’s the story of the past few quarters. 

Analysts are nailing NVIDIA’s business. The hyperscalers telegraph their spending. Supply chain data gives visibility into chip orders. The window for surprises is getting smaller.

NVIDIA’s still growing like crazy. But the shock factor that previously led to massive post-earnings moves has disappeared.

The market’s used to NVIDIA crushing expectations by 20-30%. Now it’s beating by 3-6%. 

And when expectations are that high, meeting them isn’t enough…

Thursday’s 4.5% drop tells you everything: the market was positioned for perfection and got merely excellent.

Why Calls Got Destroyed (And Puts Didn’t Explode)

Anyone who bought calls into earnings, hoping for a 2023-style gap-up, got wrecked.

But puts weren’t up hundreds of % either…

Even the weeklies are up less than you might expect from a 4.5% drop:

Why? IV crush.

Before earnings, options were pricing in an 8-10% move.

So even though the puts were directionally correct, the move wasn’t big enough to overcome the IV dropoff after the event passed.

This is what happens when everyone’s positioned for fireworks and the stock just … moves normally.

Earnings aren’t the catalyst they used to be for NVIDIA.

A bigger event has taken its place…

There’s Another Catalyst Coming (And It’s Way Bigger Than Earnings)

NVIDIA’s GPU Technology Conference happens March 16-20 this year.

This is where Huang drops the bombshells that actually move the stock.

Think about it: earnings reports have backward-looking numbers that analysts can model.

GTC announces forward-looking products that nobody’s pricing in yet.

Last year’s GTC? Huang unveiled Blackwell. The stock ripped.

The year before? New AI software platforms. The stock ripped.

GTC is where NVIDIA shows the roadmap… 

Where they announce the next-generation chips… 

Where they reveal partnerships nobody knew about…

The kind of stuff that Wall Street can’t model in advance because it hasn’t been announced yet.

Mark your calendar: March 16.

Until then…

Be good (and be good to others),
Ben Sturgill

*Past performance does not indicate future results