The market just flipped on us.
Nine weeks of higher highs, clean bounces, and a falling VIX… gone in 5 sessions.
I’m watching this 1 stock.
This market is full of chop and headlines that fly faster than anyone can read.
It’s enough to make your head spin.
Just look at the biggest catalysts right now:
- A war overseas.
- An inflation scare.
- And the biggest IPO in history.
The volatility is bleeding into every corner of the market.
I’m not here to predict where it all lands. I’m here to trade it the same way I have for more than two decades…
This process makes sense.
And when the rest of the market is losing its head, I only want the most logical trade setups.
The War Driving This Volatility
The conflict with Iran kicked off on February 28. We’re in mid-June now… that’s three and a half months of strikes, threats, and broken promises.
This war is an escalation of last summer’s 12-day air campaign and the strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
A 2026 ceasefire held for a stretch… then collapsed this week into a fresh round of rocket fire.
The signals out of Washington keep whipsawing.
A hard threat one hour, a walk-back the next. Peace talks, then a new strike. A Qatari delegation flew to Tehran to broker a deal, and the strikes resumed while they were still on the ground.
The newest flashpoint: Kharg Island, the terminal that moves roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports. And Trump just threatened to occupy it.
I don’t know whether a deal will land next week or next month.
But without a resolution, the fear stays baked into energy prices. And that premium is the exact momentum behind my favorite trade setup right now…
Additional Volatility
The war isn’t the only force at play…
The energy spike feeds straight into inflation.
May CPI hit 4.2% year over year, the hottest reading since 2023, with energy driving most of the jump.
Then there’s the wild card with no link to the Middle East…
SpaceX went public this morning, the largest IPO in market history. It doesn’t pump crude or set rates, but the money and attention that chase it are yanking capital from every corner of the market.
Stack it all together, and you get a tape that whips in every direction with no follow-through.
So how do I trade a market this violent?
When the VIX Climbs, I Shorten Up
My rule here isn’t up for debate.
When the VIX pushes above $19.75, I shift to day trades and shorter-term setups.
It comes down to one word: follow-through.
In a calm, trending market, I can buy a setup with confidence that it will keep working for days. A high VIX kills that luxury. The price action whips both directions, and the multi-day hold that printed money last month gets stopped out by lunch.
So I shrink my time frame. I lean on short-term follow-through only, since that’s the one edge a violent market still gives me.
One additional note. If you don’t day trade, the smartest play in a market like this might be to step aside and keep your powder dry.
There’s no shame in sitting out a market that doesn’t fit you.
Top-Down to the Strongest Name
When I hunt for a long-biased trade in a volatile market, I run the same play every time.
I’m a top-down trader. The indexes are soft right now, so I won’t force a trade on a broken SPY or a top-heavy QQQ. I drop down a level… to the sectors.
I find the one sector swimming against the current.
Right now, that’s Energy.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLE) is up 26% on the year, holding its ground between $55 and $60 while the broad market slides.
Then I go one level deeper. I want the heavyweight, the name carrying the most weight in the sector.
That’s Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM).
The Levels on XOM
XOM trades near $150 per share, up 21% on the year, while half the market fights to hold support.
$145 is the nearest solid support level below XOM. Buyers have stepped in and defended that area on every pullback since February. And the price is parked right on top of it today. That’s my line in the sand.
$175 is the ceiling/breakout level, the highs from March.
From there, my plan writes itself. If the stock holds above $145 with strength, that’s where I want to buy calls. With my risk defined just under that level.
If the stock loses $145 and slices through it, the setup is broken. I’m out. No second-guessing, no holding and hoping.
Two Markets, One Mindset
This next part decides whether you survive a market like this.
We just lived through two completely different environments in the span of a few weeks.
The previous market ran almost 9 weeks back-to-back. The one we’re in now is 5 days old, but already threatening the earlier gains.
This is the rule I’d tattoo on every trader if I could: be rigid in your rules, but flexible in your expectations.
In other words, our discipline stays the same, but the market can change at the drop of a hat.
Trading is an “if-this-then-that” game.
If the market does this, then we do that.
React. Don’t predict.
The easy market is gone for now. The VIX is up, the price action is choppy, and the headlines won’t quit.
None of that changes my core process. I just have to tweak my strategy.
I shorten my time frame, I run top-down to the strongest name, I respect my levels, and I keep my head neutral.
Right now, that process points me to XOM.
Be good (and be good to others),
Ben Sturgill
*Past performance does not indicate future results. Not typical.
