šŸ¤¹ How Iā€™m Trading the Post-FOMC Surge šŸ“ˆ

Good morning, tradersā€¦

Ben here.

Unsurprisingly, this week has been dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

On Monday, I sent a text alert to my Spyder Members, warning about the dangers of trading too aggressively before the FOMC:

This comes back to the idea of trading like a farmer. I know what Iā€™m looking for in an options trading setup ā€” and if I donā€™t see it, that setup becomes a no-trade.

But now that the meeting has concluded and the Fed has decided to hold interest rates steady, weā€™re seeing an initial bullish reaction, and starting to get a trendā€¦

The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) surged more than 3% following the Fedā€™s announcement on Wednesday, while sector-leader Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) gained a staggering 12.85%.

That said, the price action can be very unpredictable in the days after Fed decisions. I canā€™t tell you how many times Iā€™ve seen the market surge (or dump) after Powell speaks, only for stocks to make a counterintuitive reversal the following day, destroying everyoneā€™s unrealized gains. 

To help make sure this doesnā€™t happen, let me give you three key tips for trading the post-FOMC madnessā€¦

Size Down Your Positions

More than anything, I recommend sizing down and trading smaller positions this week.

This market can flip at any moment, and we donā€™t want to be left holding a large bag at the wrong time.

Smaller positions give you more wiggle room to make mistakes (especially if youā€™re trading a small account).

The most important thing is that you go on to trade another day. Never risk more than youā€™re willing to lose.

I canā€™t tell you how many traders Iā€™ve seen blow their entire careers on a few poorly-sized trades.

And itā€™s always sizing too big that kills traders, not the other way around.

If youā€™re unhappy after a winning trade because you didnā€™t bet more money, thatā€™s greed rearing its ugly head.

You should be excited about your strategy working, and not disappointed that you didnā€™t make more money.

Be very deliberate with your position sizing and youā€™ll be a better trader for it.

Then, you should also be very deliberate with something elseā€¦

Book Profits Quickly

Suppose youā€™re lucky and disciplined enough to find yourself in a five-star setup, where your contracts are surging. 

In that case, itā€™s time to immediately identify another price target ā€” the level where youā€™ll book profits. 

If a tradeā€™s going well, greed is your worst enemy. Youā€™ve gotta fight the urge to hold out for unrealistic price targets. 

To use a baseball analogy: Be satisfied hitting a single ā€¦ donā€™t risk missing the ball by going for a grand slam.

This is especially true during a week like this one when major Fed catalysts can rock the market in minutes.

I want you to be ā€œgreedy with your gainsā€ this week. If youā€™re up 50% on an options trade, donā€™t hold out for 75-100%. 

Lock your profits up and move on to the next play. Scale out of your trades gradually to secure your gains. 

This is easier said than done. Thereā€™s a constant war in tradersā€™ heads between holding runners and booking profits quickly.

But this week, with the Fed dominating the narrative, itā€™s more important than ever to grab your unrealized gains while you still have them.

Stick to Your Plan

This isnā€™t the first time Iā€™ll mention the importance of forming a plan for every trade you enter.

Itā€™s not rocket science ā€” every successful trader I know has their game plan prepared before they enter a trade. 

However, simply writing a trading plan isnā€™t enough ā€” you must stick to it.

Letā€™s say youā€™re going on a road trip and the GPS has planned a route for you. If you take some side road that wasnā€™t in your itinerary, youā€™ll probably take more time than anticipated. Or worse, you could get lost.

Well, the same goes for trading. 

To build your plan, determine the following before entering any trades:

  • Key price levels (support and resistance)…
  • Any upcoming catalysts that could affect the share priceā€¦
  • Position size (the number of contracts I want to trade)ā€¦
  • Profit target and risk levelā€¦
  • Potential entry and exit pricesā€¦

Then, once youā€™re in the trade, you need to stick to your plan as much as possible. This isnā€™t to say you shouldnā€™t be willing to adapt to extremely volatile conditions ā€” you should.

If youā€™re on your road trip and find one of the freeways you planned to travel is closed for construction, youā€™ll need to adjust your navigation. Again, trading works similarly. 

But barring the unexpected, thereā€™s a reason you laid out the roadmap you did. So donā€™t veer away from your meticulously-designed trading plan unless the price action forces you to.

Now, before we go, letā€™s look at:

šŸ’°The Biggest Smart-Money Bets of the DayšŸ’°

  • $3.1 million bearish bet on PDD 08/23/2024 $129 puts @ $5.00 avg. (seen on 7/31)
  • $2.6 million bullish bet on PYPL 09/20/2024 $60 calls @ $7.65 avg. (seen on 7/31)
  • $1.8 million bullish bet on GLD 10/18/2024 $230 calls @ $5.00 avg. (seen on 7/31)

Happy trading,

Ben Sturgill

P.S. My brand-new specialized system for trading earnings season ā€” Operation: Master Calendar ā€” is off to a rip-roaring start.

Take a look at the results from my first 4 trade ideas:

EQR 8/16/24 $70 calls @ ~ 2.30

17% move from ~$2.30 on 7/29 to $2.70 on 7/29*

FFIV 8/16/24 $185 calls @ ~3.60

456% move from ~$3.60 on 7/29 to $20 on 7/31*

HOLX 8/16/24 $85 calls @ ~0.75

69% move from ~$0.75 on 7/29 to $1.27 on 7/29*

WELL 8/16/24 $115 calls @ ~1.00

100% move from ~$1.00 on 7/29 to $6 on 7/30*

If you want access to this system ā€” which can predict earnings moves like these before they happen ā€” Click here now to join Operation: Master Calendar!

*Past performance does not indicate future results

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