Good morning, traders…
Last week, I wasn’t trading because my family and I went to Washington D.C.
For a history major like me, it was a real treat to see our nation’s capital in person and spend some quality time with the family.
But now I’m back, and let me just say… it’s a good week to be plugged in.
The market is lining up beautifully for short-term trades.
Market internals are setting up. Liquidity is widening. And macro conditions are setting the ideal backdrop for some juicy upside moves.
And when we get a confluence of indicators like this, it’s go time…
We’ve got some important data behind us already — PMI numbers out of Europe. More is coming this week with GDP, unemployment claims, and core PCE inflation.
It all points to a softer stance from the Fed and a realistic path to rate cuts starting in June.
In the meantime, a handful of names are breaking out, the Smart Money is getting active, and internals like skew are flashing the kind of signals we wait weeks for.
There are several charts and indicators worth watching closely right now — big ones. Let me show you what I’m talking about…
The Macro Story
Yesterday, we got PMI data out of Europe:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI: 46.7
- Flash Services PMI: 51.2
- Flash Composite PMI: 50.2
These numbers show that while manufacturing remains in contraction (below 50), the services sector is still expanding slightly, helping the overall composite to stay just above the breakeven line.
This week, we’ll get GDP numbers and unemployment claims on Thursday, followed by core PCE inflation data on Friday.
These are the puzzle pieces that matter for the Fed’s rate path, and they’re all pointing toward a softening tone.
Gasoline prices are falling (now around $2.70 in parts of Florida). This is a good thing for consumers.
Meanwhile, inflation is hovering near 3%, getting closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Based on current projections, we’re likely to see rate cuts in June and September.
Rate cuts will widen liquidity further — and that shift in liquidity will be a hugely positive signal for stocks, crypto, and risk assets at large…
2 Charts I’m Watching Closely
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) continues to be one of the biggest movers in the market — in both directions.
After a staggering 54% drop over the past three months, the chart is now reversing to the upside, jumping 17% in two sessions…
Whatever opinion you may have about Elon Musk, the company itself continues to dominate the EV industry, especially with its control over the Supercharger network.
TSLA has historically followed business cycles and liquidity trends, and where it sits now looks like a strong setup for long-term upside.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing similar behavior. The logarithmic chart suggests a potential climb toward $210,000 — or even higher — as liquidity expands.
That trend has already started pulling crypto stocks like MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR) higher:
Side Note: This chart is a textbook example of a key support level holding. The stock triple-bottomed at $231.55 (right near the 200-day EMA), and now it’s up 42% in two weeks.
These aren’t hype trades. These are names that respond to macro conditions, and the conditions are shifting in their favor.
Why We Track Market Internals
I regularly talk about the importance of tracking market internals, like skew…
Why? Because they give us signals as to where the market is headed.
Skew is an options-based metric that measures how much more expensive traders are willing to pay for downside protection versus upside exposure.
When skew is high, it means institutions are heavily favoring puts — pricing in risk, hedging, or expecting volatility.
When skew drops, it means that fear is fading, and the cost of calls becomes relatively more attractive.
On February 18th, I pointed out that skew had spiked to one of the highest readings of the year. That signaled the need to be more conservative and add hedges.
Look what happened next … February 19 was the first day of the biggest major index pullback we’ve seen since last August.
By March 12th, skew had dropped below the 133 level. That opened the door to buying short-dated calls.
Fast forward just a few days, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) is already up 5% from its lows.
This is the process:
- Skew runs high → look for 30–90 day puts.
- Skew drops low → look for 5–10 day calls.
Smart Money Moves
A few names are standing out from the recent OMEN Scanner order flow:
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR)
March 28 $136 calls came in strong on Friday’s close. If price holds above $135, this name could see continuation. Strong buying into the close tends to signal intent.
On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON)
$48 April 4 calls showed up in size. Buyers were sweeping into the close, and if this clears $47.20, that pressure could continue.
Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TECK)
April $46 calls stood out with 2,500 contracts against just 7 in open interest. Price needs to get through $43.20 for those to shape up, but the size behind it is hard to ignore.
Lyft Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT)
August $15 calls showed up in repeat sweeps on Friday. No open interest, which means it’s fresh buying. If price breaks above $12.32, this has room. Nice to see it finally forming a higher low structure.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Over $1 million in April $57.50 calls came through on Friday. If this clears $61, there’s a shot at continuation. That level is also prior resistance.
5 Bonus Names from the Premium Scanner
A few more names that popped on the premium filter:
- Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) – Big gap up Monday.
- Dun & Bradstreet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: DNB) – Decent structure and call flow.
- Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) – Continues to look good, as it has all year.
- MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR) – Riding the Bitcoin momentum.
- Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) – Still like the June $110 calls.
Keep your eyes on last week’s list too — Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) are still setting up clean.
The Big Picture is Shifting
This week is setting up for strength heading into Q2. Internals are constructive, macro is softening, and the Smart Money is starting to look more risk-on.
In other words, the bigger picture is shifting in our favor.
Take care, trade well, and I’ll see you live.
P.S. Last earnings season, we had 100 winning trades in a row in Earnings Edge — don’t miss the next 100…
TODAY, March 25 — you have TWO GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES to join the great Danny Phee for a LIVE EARNINGS WORKSHOP — 2:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. EST — Click here to reserve your seat!
*Past performance does not indicate future results
