Good morning, traders…
I hope you had a restful weekend because we have a busy week in front of us. After a long period of difficult, choppy trading — some excellent setups are starting to develop.
But first, a quick story. I spent my weekend down in Hoover, Alabama, supporting my boys through a basketball tournament.
Nothing reminds me of the importance of patience like watching my 14-year-old try to grow into his shoes — literally and figuratively.
My son’s almost six feet tall, but when you’re surrounded by eighth graders who are already towering and dunking, it’s easy to feel left behind.
I just kept telling him, “Patience, son. Your time will come.”
Meanwhile, my fourth grader — who’s been lighting it up from three — didn’t get as much playing time as we’d hoped. I’ll be honest, I had to bite my tongue and let the process play out. No complaints to the coach, no frustration boiling over. Just patience. Just trust.
And as I was standing there, I realized — this lesson applies to the market too…
Our job? Stay steady. Stay ready. Let the right setups come to you.
That’s the mindset we need this week. Let’s talk about it…
A Week of Data and Catalysts
We’re stepping into a heavy data week. Here’s what’s on deck:
- Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Job Openings, Wholesale Inventories, Trade Balance
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, GDP, and Employment Costs
- Thursday: Personal Spending, Personal Income, and the PCE Index
- Friday: The big one — Non-Farm Payrolls
ISM Manufacturing and end-of-month fund rebalancing are major watch points too. All of this tells us that liquidity — the real fuel behind market moves — is what we have to keep our eyes on.
On Monday, names like Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG), Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON), and WolfSpeed (NYSE: WOLF) were showing early strength.
On the flip side, Motorola Solutions (NYSE: MSI) and a few others are a little weaker.
As always, liquidity is king. If money’s flowing in on the OMEN Scanner, prices tend to follow.
Macro Nerd Moment: Why Basel IV Matters
Quick economic sidebar: Basel IV regulations are forcing banks to hold more bonds. The story they tell is “safety”, but the real reason is the government needs a guaranteed buyer for all the bonds they’re printing to fund debt.
Translation? More liquidity pumped into the system.
We’re entering a season where rate cuts are becoming more probable (most likely starting this summer), and that usually acts as a tailwind for equities. Not a reason to throw discipline out the window, but definitely a reason to stay sharp for breakout setups.
What the VIX Is Telling Us
The VIX has finally cooled off under 30. If we can get a further move toward the low 20s, that’s where longer-dated plays get very attractive.
You might’ve noticed last week I started leaning into some longer setups. That’s not by accident. As fear dries up, you want to be building longer-dated exposure — with smart stops in place.
Smart Money Watchlist: Top Setups for the Week
Here’s what’s topping my list right now:
- MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB): Beautiful consolidation setting up a potential breakout above $175.50. A clean bull pennant on the hourly chart. I like the short-term May 2nd $185 calls if we trigger.
- Grab Holdings (NASDAQ: GRAB): Same look — tightening consolidation. Watch $4.80 for a breakout. May 30th $5 calls look attractive.
- CoorsTek (NASDAQ: CRZ): Big smart money flowing into August $9 calls. Needs to get above $8.45 to get going.
- Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL): Long-term setup brewing. Watching $163.30 for a breakout. I’m favoring the October 17th $200 calls if we get that push.
- Palantir (NYSE: PLTR): On pullbacks into $13.50, I’m eyeing this week’s $15 calls for quick trades.
These charts are showing clean consolidation patterns with visible Smart Money interest — exactly the kind of setups I want to focus on.
This week is about staying patient while staying sharp. I know it’s tempting to want to swing at every pitch when the market is feeling some relief, but trust me — quality over quantity wins every time.
Position with discipline, then let time and patience do their job.
Happy trading,
Ben Sturgill
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