The biggest risk for new traders…
They’ve already taken a few plays. Maybe there were some winners in the beginning, but now they’re underwater and afraid of falling further into the abyss.
So they wait for the perfect trade setup.
Here’s what that looks like…
This new strategy can be deceiving.
After burning themselves on a few “obvious winners”, they’re ready to lock in and only focus on perfect setups.
But they end up choosing the wrong strategy.
It’s a tragedy because their newfound sense of responsibility and risk aversion is essentially wasted. And in some cases, it works against them.
Hold onto your fear of falling further into the red. But channel that fear into the right strategy.
The Waiting Room Will Cost You
There are two main types of trading personalities.
The gut people who move on intuition.
This is my wife. She feels the answer and acts before she can explain why. If that’s you, I’m jealous. I’m not wired like that.
Then there are the data people.
I’m one of them. I want evidence before I commit. I go hunting for information, and then I hunt for a little more.
When we moved to Florida, I built a whole spreadsheet full of plus and minus columns. My wife knew the answer the whole time. She just sat there waiting for me to catch up.
But neither camp escapes a recurring trap.
- The gut person freezes when the gut goes quiet.
- The data person freezes when the spreadsheet ends.
That’s at the heart of this major issue for new traders.
Fear Wears A Lab Coat
Data feels like discipline. It feels like rigor, like doing the work, like responsibility.
Sometimes it’s all of that.
But sometimes it’s just fear wearing a lab coat.
The pull for one more confirmation, one more green candle before you commit… that need often traces back to a simple root. You don’t want to be wrong again.
So you wait for a certainty that never arrives, and the trade slips past you.
If you refuse to decide, the market decides for you. That holds true across the rest of life too.
The Third Way
There’s a path that runs between frozen and reckless.
We act with an edge, with probability in our favor. And we stay humble enough to be wrong.
That’s why I grip my rules tightly and hold my expectations loosely. My rules protect me. My expectations would only pick a fight with reality.
The main idea behind a successful trader: “Good enough” will always win as long as you control the downside.
“Good enough” means you built a list of data points that tell you a setup earns your money. Not a flawless list. A list you tested and trust.
You decide what clears the bar, then you pull the trigger.
Stop Worshiping The Win Rate
We all get hung up on being right.
I was talking with Strati, the mentor over in Inner Circle, and he told me his strategy only wins 38% of the time.
The man is a million-dollar trader. He loses more often than he wins, but his account keeps climbing because his winners dwarf his losers.
Sit with that for a second. A trader who’s wrong more than half the time built a fortune.
One trade proves nothing about you. The long-run outcome proves everything.
Confidence Lives In The Track Record
Here’s how traders level up their accounts without the stress of losing money…
I can trade with peace for the same reason it’s pleasant to sit down and take a load off.
I trust my chair. I’ve sat in it so many times that I know it holds me up. And that trust didn’t arrive on day one. It got built rep after rep.
Let me offer another example.
I still sit in the top five for the highest field goal percentage in a single season at my university. Number one and number four on that list. My best year hit 62% over more than a hundred shots.
I’m not here to brag, here’s the truth…
For every shot I put up, I had no clue whether it would drop.
But I knew my form and my process gave me a higher chance of making than missing, so I let it fly.
That’s the whole game. Not knowing the outcome of the next shot, just trusting the sample size behind it.
See It Right, Trade It Right
Three takeaways before you go.
One. Quit hunting for full certainty. You won’t find it in the market, and you won’t find it in life. This is a probability game.
Two. Make peace with not knowing. Let your mind settle into it. You don’t need to know the outcome, since your edge already tilts the odds your way.
Three. When your criteria line up, shoot your shot and release the outcome. Right or wrong on one trade tells you nothing. The track record tells you everything.
Remember that certainty is a feeling, not a fact.
People bail when they chase the comfort of feeling safe. People pile in when they chase the thrill of feeling like a winner. Both crowds chase a feeling. Drop the chase.
Patient people take money from impatient people. Build your criteria, wait for your spot, and take the shot when the odds are in your favor.
Be good (and be good to others),
Ben Sturgill
*Past performance does not indicate future results. Not typical.
