Good morning, traders…

It’s a good thing I’m writing this morning, because my voice sounds like I spent the weekend smoking a pack a day and screaming into a megaphone — and in a way, that’s not far off. 

I didn’t touch a cigarette (don’t smoke!). But I was yelling (in a good way) at my kid’s basketball games. 

My youngest son, Tyler, had himself a record-breaking weekend on the court.

The kid is ten years old, built like a power forward already, and has the confidence of someone who’s hit a few buzzer beaters in his day. 

In two games, he scored 55 points, dropping six threes in the semis and eight more in the finals. I mean, the kid was cooking — he was even named MVP after the game:

Now, I’m old school when it comes to celebrations. No flossing. No TikTok dances. 

But even I had to laugh when Tyler knocked down his seventh three, just like he said he would, and hit me with a hilarious little celebration.

Proud dad moment. 

That MVP trophy didn’t just mean he played well — it meant he showed up, stayed confident, and took advantage of his opportunity to shine. 

And today I’ll show you how to do that, not on the basketball court — but in the options market…

Showing Up and Reading the Market

Step one is showing up and assessing the tape.

We’ve got a lot going on in the markets. Volume is coming in selectively, and stocks are acting a little skittish. 

But there are some crucial setups worth watching…

Key Price Levels on the S&P 500

This S&P 500 is currently chopping around in the $530s…

But the crucial level I’m watching is $512, which has been a key pivot — acting as support, resistance, and everything in between:

Friday gave us inside days after a massive green candle earlier in the week. That’s a setup worth watching. Inside days are a sign that traders are catching their breath, and they often lead to the next move. 

If we can get back above that $550 zone, that would be confirmation of strength.

But don’t forget: $495 is our line in the sand. If we lose that, it could get ugly fast.

The VIX is Still Elevated

The VIX has dropped from its recent high at 60, but let’s not celebrate too early. 

It’s still hanging around 30, so we’re still in high-volatility territory. That means all options contracts — puts and calls alike — are more expensive than normal. 

Make sure to factor this into your risk/reward calculations, as higher premiums equal higher risk across the board. 

The put-call ratio is retreating again, which tells me traders are still nervous, while the full-on panic is subsiding. I’m watching the trend in buyer appetite more than anything.

Key Themes to Watch This Week:

• Tariffs. Over the weekend, Trump said that chips, computers, and phones would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. Then he backpedaled. This is getting confusing, but we need to listen to any trade policy talk, as nothing is affecting the market more right now…
  
• Rumors that China is going to ban rare earth mineral exports to the U.S. could be a curveball.
  
• Economic data — Manufacturing numbers, core retail sales, unemployment claims, building permits — all coming this week.

5 Smart Money Stocks On Watch

Here are five Smart Money setups sticking out to me from the OMEN Scanner:

1. HUT 8 Corp. (NASDAQ: HUT)
We saw big Smart Money buys in the $17 calls. The stock is eyeing a break above $13, and if it clears that, things could accelerate quickly. Bitcoin’s strength is helping this one. Keep an eye out for follow-through.

2. Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RIO)
We had some solid activity in the May $60 calls. If this thing can reclaim the $57.50 area, the gap fill becomes a real possibility. Watch for that level to act as the trigger.

3. MongoDB Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB)
This is a pullback I actually like. I added some long-term shares, and if it clears $167.50, I’m eyeing the April 17 $175 calls. It’s a textbook run-rest-run setup, and there’s a nice gap to fill above.

4. CBOE Global Markets Inc. (BATS: CBOE)
Big size trades hit the tape late in the session Friday for the April 17 $225 calls. It’s hugging VWAP, and if it can break $217.30, it could get spicy.

5. PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL)
Seeing flow into the short-dated $62 calls. Not a favorite name for me long-term, but this kind of short-term option interest deserves a look when paired with technical momentum.

What’s Coming Next

I’ve been leaning into the Momo Scanner, and it’s been delivering some great short-term setups — especially when you line up high implied volatility (left side) with big volume trades (right side). 

Remember: this is a high-volatility environment. Don’t think you have to trade. In a market as unpredictable as this one, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with watching, learning, and staying patient.

Let the trades come to you.

Be good and be good to others,

Ben Sturgill

P.S. I’ve been using a brand-new tool … and it’s completely changed how I trade.

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*Past performance does not indicate future results