The biggest IPO in history is almost here…
You’ve probably heard the rumblings: SpaceX is going public.
This is my #1 watch.
SpaceX isn’t public yet. It’s expected to hit the market on June 12. But the volatility is already here.
Just look at the headlines:
There’s one stock that stands the most to gain/lose from this IPO.
But it doesn’t launch rockets or build satellites…
It’s uniquely tied to the industry like no other stock. And as we approach the IPO, I expect the price action to grow more volatile.
That directly translates to the size of our trade setups.
The SpaceX Catalyst
This is one of the biggest stories in the market right now because SpaceX is slated to be the biggest IPO in history.
IPOs are volatile by nature. It’s the first chance traders get to influence a company’s market value in real time.
- Optimistic longs are buying.
- Pessimistic shorts are selling.
- Everyone in between hunts for gains in the middle.
A listing this size, valued far north of $1 trillion, points to violent price swings in the market. And we’re already watching that momentum build.
But the cleanest setups won’t come from SpaceX itself…
The Details
SpaceX filed its S-1 with the SEC on May 20. And the numbers are astounding…
The company is targeting a valuation close to $2 trillion on listing day. That puts SpaceX in the same weight class as massive tech names like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA.
The company wants to raise as much as $75 billion through the offering. That crushes Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing from 2019, the largest IPO ever recorded.
And there’s one specific aspect of this story that everyone should pay attention to…
SpaceX is reportedly handing 30% of the float to retail investors.
A typical mega-cap IPO sends 5% to 10% to retail… SpaceX tripled it.
Whether it’s a publicity stunt or an attempt at boosting demand, the news is pulling eyeballs from every corner of the market.
That’s good for traders.
SpaceX by the Numbers
The financials tell two stories…
The bull case:
- Revenue of $18.67 billion in 2025, up 33% year-over-year.
- Starlink alone pulled in $11.39 billion.
- Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald and Roth both call SpaceX’s grip on orbital launch “monopolistic.”
The bear case:
- A $4.94 billion net loss for full-year 2025.
- A $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026 alone.
- An accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion, most of it tied to AI infrastructure and the xAI merger.
Bulls call it investing in growth. Bears call it a cash incinerator.
I’m not picking a side. The IPO isn’t my trade.
I’m watching the stock standing right next to it…
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
One Man, Two Companies
Tesla doesn’t launch rockets. It doesn’t build satellites or sell Starlink subscriptions.
It shares one major factor with SpaceX: Elon Musk.
Musk runs SpaceX and Tesla. When SpaceX dominates every headline, Musk’s other companies are sure to experience volatility/scrutiny.
But there’s another thread here… The $41.3 billion deficit on SpaceX’s books? Part of it traces back to the xAI merger. Musk’s companies don’t sit in separate boxes. Money, attention, and sentiment bleed between them.
You can’t buy SpaceX yet. And even when it goes public, the options probably won’t be available for a few weeks. But we can trade TSLA… It’s related, it’s optionable, and it trades millions of shares a day.
When traders want a piece of the Musk story, TSLA is the ticker they can click.
How I’m Trading Tesla
Pull up the daily chart and two numbers jump off the screen…
TSLA trades near $442 right now, up roughly 24% over the past year.
There’s $500 resistance sitting above the current price. That’s where Tesla topped out back in December. It’s the ceiling, the prior high, and a round number every trader on the planet is watching.
There’s $400 support sitting below the current price. It’s an obvious round number, and it’s influenced the price more than once in the past 12 months.
TSLA is parked between the two, in no man’s land.
I’m not predicting which way the IPO sends it. Nobody knows.
A monster debut could rip Tesla through $500 on pure Musk euphoria. A sloppy listing, or a “sell the news” reaction, could crack $400 and send it lower.
My job isn’t to guess the direction. My job is to read the direction once the market shows it to me.
But the rule that matters most…
I’m not holding contracts through June 12.
The reaction to an IPO this size is almost 50/50. The price could gap hard in either direction before I ever get a chance to react. I won’t gamble on that.
I’d rather miss the first move and catch the clean trend once the direction is obvious.
We can trade the momentum before and after the IPO. But I’m not holding contracts through the event.
This is shaping up to be one of the most volatile stretches Tesla has seen in months.
And extreme volatility translates to huge trade opportunities.
Be good (and be good to others),
Ben Sturgill
*Past performance does not indicate future results. Not typical.
