My Top 4 Setups For Expiration Week

This isn’t a normal week for options trading.

It’s options expiration week, where millions of contracts expire at once (this Friday).

Market makers (the guys who sell you options) have an extra incentive to slam contract prices in both directions.

Example: If they’re selling calls, they want the underlying stock to close under their strike by Friday afternoon.

No one knows what will happen this week, except for one thing:

Many attempted options trades will get chopped up.

But not ours…

I’m watching four beautiful charts with huge Smart Money bets.

Sure, we’re dealing with choppy conditions that will punish impatient traders who force trades just because they’re bored…

We’re dealing with a massive volume shelf overhead from the recent rally, and a market that has arguably moved too much in just a few days…

I’m not sugarcoating it. It is what it is.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t great opportunities…

The VIX Story

We’ve been tracking the VIX for months now. It’s been in an uptrend all year, but that trendline finally broke down last week.

Very important structural change here:

VIX chart: Year-to-date, daily candles (courtesy of TC2000)

Rejected the $22 level. Held around $20 to $19.75. Now it’s bouncing back toward $22 again.

That $22 level is critical. If it breaks above $22, the next level is around $23.50. That’s been a major battleground all year.

If the VIX holds down below $22, market continuation becomes possible. More setups start working. Risk-on behavior returns.

If it pushes higher above $22, expect more chop or outright downside pressure. Breakouts fail. Supports break. Nothing works cleanly.

Now to interest rates…

Right now, the market is pricing roughly 90% odds that rates stay put through June, July, and September.

That drops to 80% by year-end.

Nobody expects cuts anytime soon. Higher rates for longer is a structural headwind to watch closely.

But for now, I’m watching these charts…

My Top 4 Options Setups

PLTR April 17 $135 Calls

PLTR chart: 2025-present, daily candles (courtesy of TC2000)

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) bounced strongly off $125 support and formed a clear demand zone. I’m watching for a break above roughly $131.50 to confirm continuation.

I’m also holding longer-term June 17 $210 calls on PLTR. The weekly chart shows massive support with potential to move back toward the highs we saw earlier this year.

This name has been consolidating after a monster run. If it breaks out here, it could move fast.

UPS April 17 $106 Calls

UPS chart: 2025-present, daily candles (courtesy of TC2000)

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is forming a bullish pullback structure on the daily chart. Strong call activity is showing up versus relatively low open interest. That signals institutional positioning.

A move above $102.50 would signal bullish continuation. A pullback zone near $100 offers a secondary entry if you miss the initial breakout.

UPS has been quietly strong while most industrials have been lagging. That relative strength matters in this environment.

DDOG April 24 $109 Calls

DDOG chart: 2025-present, daily candles (courtesy of TC2000)

Datadog Inc. (NASDAQ: DDOG) is reclaiming the key level near $106.20 right now. A break above $106.20 is the trigger that confirms the setup.

Large institutional positioning has been showing up on the scanner. Smart money appears to be accumulating DDOG ahead of what could be a bigger move.

This stock is part of the SaaS sector that’s been beaten down on AI replacement fears. But the survivors are starting to show signs of life.

CRM May 15 $180 Calls

CRM chart: 2025-present, daily candles (courtesy of TC2000)

Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is setting up what looks like a potential liquidity sweep followed by a bounce. A break above $168 is the trigger level.

SaaS has been weak all year, driven by fears that AI will replace traditional software companies. But that narrative is overblown, and CRM is showing signs of life.

This is a slightly longer-dated trade (May 15 expiration) because I want more time for the setup to develop. CRM moves more slowly than the other names on this list, but when it moves, it tends to trend cleanly.